January 3rd, 2023   “Never make predictions, especially about the future.” – Casey Stengel   There is a lot to be learned from 2022, as painful as it was for most of us.  The best thing we can collectively do is to try and learn from the signposts and...

“Investors have lost an estimated $22 trillion in equities, bonds, cryptocurrencies and real estate in 2022.” – Bank of America    The lauded 60/40 bond/stock model has had a terrible year – one of the worst on record.  Not coincidentally, it’s the same...

Here Comes Santa? “Nobody knows nothing” – Jack Vogle, founder of the Vanguard Group For years the macroeconomic landscape has laid waste to economists, strategists, and most importantly, macro hedge funds.  The world’s central banks effectively papered over any...

  It’s hard to think of a month more depressing than the one we just went through.  Sentiment is at laughable extremes of bearishness.  The mood amongst traders and investors is downright apocalyptic.  And the price action in just about every asset on the planet...

September 16th, 2022 Rate of pain In our August update, we mentioned how September would be a month to focus more on the macro and wait for the micro in October when the earnings season ramps up for the last time in 2022.  Central Bank rate hikes are what are in style...

The summer is now over, kids are back in school, and the beach clubs are starting to take down the umbrellas. And what a summer it has been! Just 7 weeks ago the mood in the markets was downright apocalyptic. Stocks were meandering near their lows after a historically...

Well, the stage is set. The participants have been selected and the battle is officially on. It’s the  Fed versus market participants now. What are the reasons for battle you ask? The Fed is hell bent now on raising rates, they are sending out various Fed Governors to...

On July 15th we sent out a “mid-month note” highlighting some of the potential positives that in our mind at least are being discounted, ignored, or underreported. This makes sense, though, the first half of 2022 has been as brutal as it gets for investors or savers,...

Seasonal statistics show that the first two weeks of July tend to be bullish and that after a soft first half of the year, the second half, statistically speaking, leans towards being bullish as well.   Well, this is 2022 so a 0.74% gain in the S&P 500 index will...

50% of 2022 is now officially in the books and we reckon that the vast majority of investors, particularly those with traditional IRA’s or 401ks, would rather not spend much time reflecting on it. We aren’t going to spill a lot of ink on just how bad 2022 has been...